Embracing Uncertainty: Lessons from Thinking in Bets
Every decision we make is essentially a bet—a wager based on our beliefs and the information available to us.
In the book -Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke uses insights from the world of professional poker and cognitive psychology to remind us that every decision we make is essentially a bet—a wager based on our beliefs and the information available to us.
Every Decision is a Bet
One of the most powerful ideas in Duke’s work is that every decision is a bet. Whether you’re choosing a career path, investing in a new project, or simply deciding what to have for dinner, you’re betting on your predictions about the future. The quality of your decisions hinges on the quality of your beliefs. By understanding that our choices involve risk and uncertainty, we can become more mindful of the assumptions we make and better at calibrating our beliefs with reality.
Everything is a Bet
Think about it—choosing a career path, buying a house, even deciding what to eat for dinner—all are bets on different future versions of yourself. You’re not betting against other people. You’re betting against all the alternative paths you didn’t take.
Ignoring uncertainty might make us feel more confident in the moment, but it also makes us blind to risks. The quality of our lives is the sum of decision quality (bets) + luck. The better we get at placing smarter bets, the better our long-term outcomes.
So, how can we improve? Let’s start with how we handle uncertainty.
Step 1: Make Peace with "I’m Not Sure"
We hate admitting uncertainty. It feels weak or uninformed. But in reality, saying "I’m not sure" is the first step toward better decision-making.
Why? Because it’s the truth.
We rarely have complete information before making a choice.
The world isn’t black and white—decisions exist in shades of gray.
Being uncertain makes us less likely to fall into confirmation bias (only seeking evidence that supports what we already believe).
Try this: Next time you face a decision, pause and ask, "How sure am I?" Assign a percentage to your confidence (e.g., "I’m 70% sure this is the right call").
Step 2: Redefine “Wrong”
If you make a decision and it turns out badly, were you wrong? Not necessarily.
A common mistake is judging past decisions by their outcomes instead of their process. Since luck plays a role, even great decisions can lead to bad results.
Instead of thinking in terms of right vs. wrong, consider decision-making as a probability game:
Was the bet well-informed?
Did I weigh risks appropriately?
Did I update my beliefs as I gathered more information?
The goal isn’t to avoid ever being wrong—it’s to be less wrong over time by continuously improving how we make bets.
Step 3: Bet on Your Beliefs
Would you bet money on your beliefs? If not, why not?
This simple question forces us to evaluate how strongly we actually believe something. It makes us:
Examine our evidence more carefully.
Be more honest about our level of confidence.
Stay open to updating our views when new information arises.
Thinking this way helps us become less defensive and more objective. And objectivity is the key to making better bets.
Step 4: Use Mental Time Travel
Regret is a powerful teacher, but it usually arrives too late—after we’ve made a bad decision. What if we could move regret in front of our choices?
Try this before making a big decision:
Use the 10–10–10 Rule: Ask yourself, “How will I feel about this choice in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years?”
Backcast: Imagine you’ve already succeeded—what steps got you there? Work backward to uncover key actions.
Pre-Mortem: Assume your decision turns out terribly. What went wrong? Identifying risks in advance can help you avoid them.
Thinking this way removes emotional noise and helps you make smarter bets.
Practical Strategies for Better Decisions
Thinking in Bets isn’t just theoretical—it offers practical tools for improving our decision-making process. Let’s dive into a few key techniques:
The 10-10-10 Framework
10 minutes: Assess immediate emotional reactions (e.g., anxiety or excitement about a job offer). Helps acknowledge gut feelings without letting them dominate.
10 months: Evaluate practical impacts on career, relationships, or lifestyle. Reveals medium-term consequences as initial emotions fade.
10 years: Consider alignment with lifelong values and aspirations. Filters decisions through the lens of enduring personal growth.
Group vs. Individual Decision-Making
Proactive Planning Tools
Backcasting
Visualize an ideal future state
Reverse-engineer required steps
Identify roadblocks early
Pre-mortems
Assume your decision failed catastrophically
Diagnose hypothetical causes of failure
Build safeguards against identified risks
These methods shift focus from passive prediction to active preparation, helping decisions withstand real-world complexities while staying aligned with core objectives.
Building Better Beliefs
At the heart of Duke’s philosophy is the idea that the quality of our beliefs determines the quality of our decisions. By rigorously questioning our assumptions and remaining open to alternative viewpoints, we can refine our thinking and make more informed choices. This continuous learning process not only improves our decision-making but also helps us grow personally and professionally.
Final Thought: The Power of “Yes, and…”
The way we communicate our beliefs affects how open others are to sharing theirs. A simple trick to encourage collaboration is replacing "Yes, but…" with "Yes, and…"
“Yes, I see your point, AND here’s something else to consider…”
“Yes, that’s a valid argument, AND I’d like to add another perspective…”
This small shift helps us engage constructively instead of defensively—leading to better discussions and smarter decisions.
Takeaway: Make Smarter Bets
Life is poker, not chess—embrace uncertainty.
Everything is a bet—make peace with not knowing for sure.
Judge decisions by process, not just outcomes.
Test your beliefs—would you bet on them?
Use mental time travel to anticipate regret before it happens.
Communicate with “Yes, and…” to foster better conversations.
Next time you make a decision, ask yourself: “Am I making the smartest bet possible?” The more we think this way, the better our lives will be—one bet at a time.